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Donald Trump has a lot to celebrate after his victory in the 2024 presidential election, but there’s another reason to be optimistic for the former president: his sentencing in New York, following his conviction on 34 felony counts, may never take place. Despite being convicted of falsifying business records in connection with hush money payments to Stormy Daniels during the 2016 campaign, there are a number of reasons why Trump could avoid any punishment. Here’s a breakdown of why his sentencing might not happen anytime soon.

1. Presidential Immunity Could Prevent Sentencing

A critical development in Trump’s legal defense is a Supreme Court ruling issued in July 2024. In a decision concerning Trump’s federal election interference case, the Court ruled that a former president cannot have evidence related to official presidential actions used against them in a criminal trial. Although this ruling applied to federal cases, Trump has argued that certain evidence presented in his New York trial violates this principle. Specifically, he contends that testimony from his former White House communications director, Hope Hicks, regarding events that took place while Trump was president, should not have been allowed.

Even if Judge Juan Merchan, who oversaw Trump’s trial in New York, rejects this argument, Trump could still appeal, and legal experts believe that the November 26 sentencing date could be postponed as a result. The issue of presidential immunity is likely to play a significant role in delaying any further legal proceedings, as appeals related to immunity often take time to resolve.

2. Political Fallout from Sentencing a President-Elect

Another obstacle to sentencing Trump is the intense political backlash it could trigger. As the newly elected president, Trump holds substantial political power, and moving forward with his sentencing could lead to a national crisis. Given the deep political divisions in the United States, sentencing a president-elect could incite widespread protests and unrest.

Mark Bederow, a New York defense attorney, notes that the political impact of such a decision could be profound. He points out that “any judge can’t ignore the 800-pound gorilla in the room,” referring to Trump’s overwhelming electoral victory. Any attempt to proceed with sentencing could further exacerbate the country’s divisions and create an untenable situation for the judiciary. The political reality of Trump’s election victory could give judges pause and lead them to reconsider moving forward with sentencing at this time.

3. New Legal Challenges Based on Trump’s Election

Trump’s 2024 election win also provides him with new legal arguments that could block or delay sentencing. The Supreme Court’s presidential immunity ruling raised concerns about the potential interference of legal proceedings with the responsibilities of a sitting president. Although this ruling applied to federal matters, Trump could argue that similar considerations apply to state court proceedings as well.

Trump’s legal team could assert that it would be improper for a state court to impose a sentence on a president-elect, arguing that such actions could interfere with presidential duties. This argument could prompt further legal challenges and delays. Whether or not this argument is successful remains uncertain, but Trump’s election victory gives him additional grounds to seek a delay or modification of his sentencing.

4. Complications in Retrial

If Trump’s convictions are overturned on appeal, a retrial could be in the works, but that process is not without its own set of complications. A retrial years after the original trial could face significant hurdles, including difficulty obtaining witness testimony or presenting evidence that may no longer be as compelling due to the passage of time. Defendants often argue that retrying a case after such a long delay would violate their right to a fair trial, particularly if key witnesses are unavailable or memories have faded.

Trump’s legal team could use these issues to challenge any retrial, arguing that the case should be dismissed or delayed further. Given that memories and evidence may no longer be as fresh years after the original trial, the challenges to a fair retrial could create further delays in any potential punishment.

5. Trump’s Age Could Influence the Outcome

If Trump’s convictions stand and sentencing proceeds, his age could be a factor that works in his favor. At 78 years old, Trump is at an age where courts often consider leniency, particularly when the defendant has no prior criminal record. By the end of his second presidential term, Trump will be 82, which may further weigh into the court’s decision-making process.

As Catherine Christian, a former Manhattan prosecutor, explained, courts are more likely to show leniency to defendants who are older and have no history of criminal activity. This could lead to a reduced sentence or, in some cases, a decision to forgo sentencing altogether. Given Trump’s age, his legal team could argue that a lighter sentence, or no sentence at all, would be appropriate.

6. The Political and Legal Dynamics Have Shifted

Trump’s legal situation has dramatically changed since his election. As president-elect, he now has more political leverage, and his chances of avoiding sentencing have grown significantly. Trump’s electoral victory has shifted public perception in his favor, which could influence the direction of his legal battles. Judges may take into account the broader political landscape and public opinion as they weigh how to proceed.

Mark Bederow notes that the legal dynamics have “radically changed” since Trump’s victory, putting him in a much stronger position. Trump now has the political backing of millions of Americans, and his legal team can use this newfound support as leverage in their arguments to delay or avoid sentencing.

Conclusion

Several factors make it increasingly unlikely that Donald Trump will face sentencing for his 34 convictions anytime soon. The Supreme Court’s ruling on presidential immunity, the political implications of sentencing a president-elect, new legal arguments based on his election, and his age all work in his favor. Furthermore, the potential for complications in a retrial or appeals could further delay the case for years.

Trump’s legal team is in a much stronger position now than ever before, and with the political dynamics shifting in his favor, the chances of him facing sentencing appear slimmer. While his legal battles are far from over, Trump’s prospects of avoiding punishment for his convictions are improving with every passing day. As he prepares for his second term in office, the likelihood of his sentencing being carried out in the near future continues to diminish.