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A proposed 10% tariff on all EU exports to the United States could significantly impact trade between the two regions. While Germany, Ireland, and Italy are seen as key exporters to the US, many other EU nations also rely heavily on the American market. Euronews Business highlights which European countries are most exposed to this tariff and how much of their trade depends on US exports.

Trump’s 2024 Tariff Proposal

During his 2024 re-election campaign, former President Donald Trump announced plans for higher tariffs on EU exports. He accused the EU of benefiting from US markets without fair reciprocation. Trump singled out automotive and agricultural imports as key concerns, suggesting the EU would face a “big price” for continued trade imbalances. With Trump’s political re-emergence, his proposal for a 10% tariff on all EU goods is being taken seriously. EU officials are now assessing its potential impact on member states.

Which EU Countries Are Most Vulnerable?

Germany, Ireland, and Italy: Leading EU Exporters to the US

In 2023, Germany was the top EU exporter to the US, shipping €157.7 billion worth of goods, according to Eurostat. Italy followed with €67.3 billion, and Ireland exported €51.6 billion. Combined, these three countries accounted for 55% of the EU’s total exports to the US.

Other notable exporters include France (€43.9 billion), the Netherlands (€40.5 billion), Belgium (€31.3 billion), and Spain (€18.9 billion). A 10% tariff would not only hit these major exporters but would also affect smaller EU nations that trade extensively with the US.

The Share of US Exports in EU Countries’ Trade

Export volume alone does not tell the full story. The percentage of each country’s exports going to the US reveals its economic reliance on the American market. Extra-EU exports refer to trade with non-EU countries.

Ireland is the most US-dependent EU nation, with 45.8% of its extra-EU exports going to the US in 2023. This is the highest share among EU countries. Seven other EU nations send at least 20% of their exports to the US, including Finland, Austria, Portugal, Italy, Germany, Slovakia, and Sweden.

Spain has the lowest share among the major EU economies, with only 13% of its extra-EU exports going to the US. France’s share is 16%, while smaller countries like Slovenia, Cyprus, and Greece send less than 10% of their exports to the US.

Countries with the Highest US Export Dependence

Ireland: The Most US-Dependent EU Nation

Ireland’s economy is the most exposed to a potential US tariff. In 2023, 26.6% of Ireland’s total exports went to the US, making it the most vulnerable EU country. Finland (11.1%), Italy (10.7%), and Germany (9.9%) also have significant export shares directed at the US. Among the four largest EU economies, France’s US export share was 7.3%, while Spain’s share was 4.8%.

Nordic Countries and Other Vulnerable EU Nations

Several Nordic countries are heavily exposed to the US market. Finland ranks second only to Ireland, with 11.1% of its total exports going to the US. Sweden (8.9%) and Denmark (8.3%) are also among the top 10 most reliant EU nations. Austria (7.1%), Portugal (6.8%), and Belgium (6.3%) follow closely.

In 2023, 10 EU countries had more than 5% of their exports headed to the US, indicating that the 10% tariff would affect not only the largest exporters but also smaller economies like Sweden, Austria, and Portugal, which have substantial exposure to the US market.

Economic Implications for Sweden, Finland, and Other EU Nations

Sweden’s Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson has warned of a “severe impact” on Swedish exports if the tariff is implemented. Sweden is preparing for economic scenarios that include the possibility of a broader US-China trade war, which could drive up global tariffs.

Finland’s exporters also face uncertainty, as the US is Finland’s top trading partner outside the EU. Finnish industries such as machinery, steel, paper, and technology would face higher costs to access the US market, reducing competitiveness.

US Role in British Exports

For non-EU countries like the UK, the US remains a vital trading partner. In 2023, 15.6% of UK exports went to the US, amounting to approximately €74 billion. This highlights that even non-EU nations remain reliant on US trade and would feel the effects of broader US tariff measures.

Conclusion: Broad Impact of a 10% Tariff on EU Exports

A proposed 10% tariff on all EU exports to the US would affect a broad range of European economies. While Germany, Ireland, and Italy would face the largest economic hits, smaller nations such as Sweden, Finland, and Austria would also be significantly impacted. As the EU analyzes its next steps, it is clear that the potential effects of the tariff would extend well beyond the largest economies, creating ripple effects for countries and industries across the continent.