Rudolph Angler Wall Street heavyweights have largely chosen sides, and financial markets seem to signal that former President Donald Trump may have the upper hand in this year’s presidential race.
According to billionaire investor Stan Druckenmiller, betting markets favor Trump, and financial markets have largely priced in his potential win. Emmanuel Cau, an analyst at Barclays in London, noted that European stocks are trading at a discount, anticipating the impact of Trump’s possible tariff policies.
A survey by SumZero, a platform of hedge funds, family offices, and private equity firms, revealed that 53% of respondents expect Trump to win. Though based on just 119 responses, the survey reflects the sentiment of a niche yet influential group of analysts and investors. A Trump victory, according to respondents, would likely benefit fossil fuels, financials, and U.S. industrials, while sectors like renewable energy, ESG investments, and retail could face challenges. Founded by Divya Narendra, SumZero has over 16,000 investors sharing insights on its platform.
This confidence in Trump isn’t limited to his core supporters. Billionaire Ken Griffin, founder of Citadel and a prominent GOP donor who once called Trump a “three-time loser,” predicted that Trump would narrowly beat Vice President Kamala Harris. Speaking at the Future Investment Initiative conference in Riyadh, Griffin commented, “Trump is favored to win, but it is almost a coin toss.”
Prediction markets, bolstered by the rise of online gambling in the U.S., also lean toward a Trump win. Druckenmiller commented in October that markets appear “very convinced” of a Republican victory.
However, Wall Street has been wrong before. Many prominent investors doubted Trump’s chances in 2016, only to be surprised by his victory over Hillary Clinton. This time, Trump has support from high-profile billionaires like Elon Musk, and a win wouldn’t shock the financial community. For instance, renowned economist Christophe Barraud has staked his reputation on a Trump victory.
Still, some, like Griffin, maintain caution. “We are at this moment of peak uncertainty,” Griffin stated, acknowledging the race remains close.