Silke Mayr Former President Donald Trump made a bold claim during his campaign, promising to end the ongoing war in Ukraine within 24 hours if elected. However, as time passes, the complexity of the conflict has shown that the reality is far more challenging than initially anticipated. Despite his early optimism, Trump’s timeline has shifted, and the war continues to rage on more than two months into his presidency.
From Quick Resolution to Diplomatic Reality
Trump’s initial promise was one of swift resolution, stating during a televised debate that he would bring an end to the war even before officially taking office. This went beyond his earlier commitment made in May 2023, where he claimed he could resolve the conflict within 24 hours of assuming the presidency. Yet, as the war drags on, Trump and his administration have come to terms with the fact that the situation may require more time and effort than they had hoped.
In an interview this past weekend, Trump acknowledged that his earlier assertion of ending the war in a single day was likely an exaggeration. The challenges of negotiating peace with both Russia and Ukraine have proven to be far more complex than he had anticipated.
Diplomatic Hurdles and Missteps Along the Way
Several factors have contributed to the slow progress of peace talks. Trump has long advocated for personal diplomacy, believing that face-to-face negotiations could resolve international crises. In February 2023, Trump spoke with Russian President Vladimir Putin for a productive 90-minute conversation, and another call took place in March 2023. Despite these discussions, the promised 30-day ceasefire did not materialize, and Russia’s pledge to halt attacks on Ukrainian energy infrastructure was quickly violated.
Putin, in particular, has made it clear that he will not be rushed into any agreements. His response to the U.S.’s two-phase peace plan was delayed for a month, and when it came, it was a rejection of the proposal. Putin insists that any discussions must address the fundamental causes of the conflict, such as NATO’s expansion and Ukraine’s sovereignty. He has also laid out specific conditions that must be met before he is willing to consider a peace deal.
Misjudgments and Tensions with Ukraine
The U.S. initially pressured Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, assuming that he was obstructing peace efforts. However, Western officials later admitted that Ukraine had been slow to adjust to the shift in U.S. policy under Trump. This misjudgment led to a tense meeting between Trump, Vice President JD Vance, and Zelensky, which consumed valuable diplomatic time and strained relations between the U.S. and Europe. This incident further complicated the already delicate negotiations.
Challenges in Ceasefire Negotiations
The scale and complexity of the conflict have further slowed efforts to reach a resolution. Ukraine initially proposed a ceasefire that would stop air and naval attacks, expecting it to be easier to monitor. However, during recent talks in Jeddah, the U.S. expanded the request, demanding that the ceasefire cover the entire 1,200-kilometer front line in eastern Ukraine. Putin rejected this expanded request, and the difficulty of enforcing such a comprehensive ceasefire has added additional hurdles.
Moreover, even the agreement for Russia to stop targeting Ukraine’s energy infrastructure has introduced further complications. Negotiators in Saudi Arabia now face the challenge of determining which power stations, including nuclear facilities, should be protected under the ceasefire. The distinction between energy infrastructure and other civilian sites remains a major point of contention, prolonging the process.
Economic Interests Complicate Peace Efforts
Trump’s administration has also faced criticism for prioritizing economic interests alongside peace efforts. U.S. officials have pushed for a deal that would allow American companies to access Ukraine’s rich mineral resources. While some see this as an investment in Ukraine’s future, others view it as exploitation of the country’s natural wealth.
Initially, Zelensky insisted on securing security guarantees before agreeing to any deal. However, the White House rejected this demand, arguing that U.S. business involvement in Ukraine would serve as a deterrent against Russian aggression. Eventually, Zelensky dropped his insistence on security guarantees, agreeing to a minerals deal without them. However, as of now, the U.S. has not signed the agreement, as officials continue to negotiate better terms, including potential access to Ukraine’s nuclear facilities.
It is becoming increasingly clear that resolving the war in Ukraine will be a far more complicated and lengthy process than Trump’s original promises suggested. While his efforts have pushed some talks forward, the path to peace remains fraught with challenges. For Zelensky, who initially believed that negotiating with Putin could be straightforward, the reality of the situation is much harsher. As the war persists, it is evident that the road to a resolution will take longer and be more difficult than originally expected.