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The latest poll by INSA for Bild reveals a striking political shift in Germany. For the first time in recent history, the CDU/CSU and the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) are now tied at 24%, signaling an unprecedented change in the nation’s political landscape. This result represents a historic low for the CDU/CSU, which has seen its support erode significantly under the leadership of Friedrich Merz. At the same time, the AfD has reached an all-time high in polling, further complicating Germany’s political environment.

Voter Frustration Over Coalition Talks

The dramatic decline in CDU/CSU support comes amid ongoing coalition negotiations, which have sparked widespread voter dissatisfaction. Since the 23 February Bundestag election, where the CDU/CSU secured 28.5% of the second votes, the party has lost a total of 4.5 percentage points, including a two-point drop in the latest survey.

Hermann Binkert, head of the Institute for New Social Answers (INSA), noted that this level of voter discontent is unprecedented for this stage in the government formation process. “We have never seen such a sharp drop in voter support during coalition talks,” he stated, highlighting the challenges the CDU/CSU now faces.

Meanwhile, the AfD, which has traditionally been a fringe party in German politics, has gained momentum, climbing one percentage point in the poll. With this rise, the AfD has now reached a record high, effectively tying the CDU/CSU. This shift marks a turning point in Germany’s political dynamics, as the far-right party gains more influence.

Stability Among Other Parties

Other political parties in Germany have seen little movement in the latest poll. The Social Democrats (SPD) remain stable at 16%, failing to gain traction despite expectations of joining the next government. The Greens have seen a slight decline, dropping by one percentage point to 11%, while the Left Party has gained one percentage point, also reaching 11%.

Importantly, all other parties are polling below the 5% threshold necessary to enter the Bundestag, which means they remain outside the key political discussions.

The poll surveyed 1,206 participants between 31 March and 4 April, with a margin of error of ±2.9%. This snapshot of public opinion highlights the shifting political allegiances in Germany, and the uncertainty surrounding the formation of the next government.

Controversial Bundestag Session Cancellation

In a highly controversial move, the CDU/CSU and SPD jointly decided to cancel the upcoming Bundestag session, which had been scheduled for next week. This decision has drawn strong criticism from opposition parties, who argue that the move is an attempt to stifle political debate during the ongoing coalition talks.

The AfD, in particular, has accused the CDU/CSU of acting out of fear, with Bernd Baumann, the party’s parliamentary secretary, announcing plans to bring all of the CDU/CSU’s campaign promises forward for immediate debate in the Bundestag. “The Union is clearly afraid of being outmaneuvered by the AfD,” Baumann said, signaling the party’s readiness to push its agenda in the face of coalition delays.

The Greens labeled the delay a “hanging game,” implying that the CDU/CSU is stalling in the hopes of avoiding difficult discussions. The Left Party also expressed outrage, calling the move “an affront,” especially given the pressing international issues, such as Donald Trump’s customs policies, that demand active parliamentary debate.

Fragile Majority in the New Bundestag

The current composition of the Bundestag is vastly different from the previous session. The old parliament, which had a two-thirds majority, was able to approve significant debt for infrastructure and defense. However, this supermajority no longer exists in the new Bundestag, where even a coalition of CDU/CSU, SPD, and Greens would fall short of the necessary majority for key legislative actions.

This political deadlock, combined with shifting public support, is creating a period of instability in Germany’s government formation process. With no clear path forward, the next months could be critical in shaping the future direction of German politics.

The current political turbulence in Germany is likely to have long-lasting effects, both domestically and internationally. As coalition talks continue, the future of Germany’s leadership remains uncertain, with the rise of the AfD adding a new layer of complexity to the process.