Rudolph Angler If you log into X or TikTok right now, you’d likely think Vice President Kamala Harris is set for a sweeping victory in the presidential race. Many posts suggest Donald Trump’s lead is vanishing—even in traditionally red states—highlighting fringe polls and alleged insider quotes. According to some users, Florida and Texas are turning blue, a surge of young and female voters have registered, and even astrology points to Harris’s inevitable rise.
Alternatively, depending on your feed, you might see the opposite: confident declarations that Trump has this election locked down. Supporters cite a sea of MAGA hats in California or Halloween costumes depicting Trump—even some disturbing “Trump vs. his assassin” costumes—in blue-leaning Philadelphia. They point to polling data that shows reduced support for Harris in swing states compared to Biden in 2020, or share comments from X’s owner Elon Musk, who, as a Trump supporter, uses early voting data to predict a GOP win in Pennsylvania.
As the neck-and-neck race continues, social media users confidently proclaim their candidate’s looming victory, fueled by growing anxiety and polarization. Each side warns that “this may be the last election” if their candidate loses, making it feel like everyone has a map to Electoral College predictions wildly painted in either red or blue. Some declare, “Harris is about to win big,” while others—Musk included—use betting odds or alternative data sources to forecast a Trump victory. Though these posts might seem insignificant individually, social media algorithms on X and TikTok ensure they spread far and wide.
Algorithms tend to amplify extremes, rewarding posts that express confidence or certainty, explains Ioana Literat, a professor at Columbia’s Teachers College. “If there’s a post that says, ‘Polls are too close to call,’ that’s not what’s going to get the most likes,” she notes. This bias toward confident content also reflects our desire for certainty, encouraging users to align with those equally sure of their candidate’s chances.
Other platforms have attempted to sidestep this divisive content. In 2016, much of the heated political conversation happened on Facebook, but Meta has since reduced political content on Instagram, Facebook, and Threads. Yet, Facebook and Instagram still struggle with deceptive political ads, according to a ProPublica report, despite Meta’s claims that it actively removes policy-violating content.
Meanwhile, the political reach of X and TikTok has only expanded. Since Elon Musk’s takeover, a Washington Post analysis shows that Republican leaders have gained more followers on X. Additionally, The Wall Street Journal found that new X accounts receive political content, often favoring Trump. While X declined to comment, Pew Research reports that about half of 18- to 29-year-olds watch political content on TikTok, which says it tries to label unverified election claims.
This intense rhetoric may have serious implications. According to Sol Messing, a research professor at NYU’s Center for Social Media and Politics, the risk is that overconfidence in a candidate can lay groundwork for challenging the results if expectations don’t align with outcomes. “Parts of this may reflect a far-right strategy,” he adds.
To further monitor voting, X launched an Election Integrity Community through Musk’s America PAC in late October. Users are encouraged to post suspected voter fraud or irregularities, though these are typically issues for government officials. Many posts, however, focus on unsubstantiated claims of fraud, often supporting Trump.
Despite Trump’s claims that he’d only lose through fraud, campaign ads for Harris on Instagram urge people to donate and turn out to vote, calling it a “must-win moment.” Michelle Obama describes the race as “too close” to call, urging maximum effort. Even Trump has shifted tone since 2020, now encouraging early voting on X.
Ultimately, no one on social media truly knows the outcome of Tuesday’s election. Sharing or engaging with election content may feel like the only way to cope as the big day nears, but unplugging from social media may be the best way to ease election stress until results are announced.