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While the goal of carbon-neutral air travel by 2050 sounds promising, experts warn that it may come with a hefty price tag for passengers.

Picture the perfect start to your holiday: a cheap flight, your cabin bag securely stowed, engines revving up, and the pilot reassuring everyone that there’s no need to worry about the environmental impact of your flight.

This is the vision of “Jet Zero” – a future where air travel becomes entirely carbon neutral, thanks to cutting-edge technologies and efforts to offset emissions. The UK government introduced this plan in 2022 under Boris Johnson’s leadership, aligning with the nation’s legally binding commitment to reach net-zero emissions by 2050. The Labour government has pledged to follow suit, with additional goals of achieving zero emissions on all domestic flights and UK airport operations by 2040.

But can this ambitious plan actually be achieved? And what might it cost passengers in the process?

The Scale of the Challenge

The numbers are staggering. A single passenger flying economy from London to New York generates around 309 kg of CO2, which would take 10 fully grown trees about a year to absorb.

To offset emissions at the global level, the aviation industry would need to plant around 100 billion mature trees annually—roughly the size of the entire country of Wales if applied to the UK alone.

With these figures in mind, how realistic is it to achieve Jet Zero by 2050? And how much more will passengers pay for their flights?

Earlier this year, Anthony Browne, the aviation minister at the time, downplayed concerns about rising costs, claiming any increase in ticket prices would be “marginal” and largely unnoticeable to most consumers.

However, some experts, such as Sir Dieter Helm, a professor of economic policy at Oxford University, disagree. He believes that higher costs are inevitable.

“There will definitely be higher costs,” Helm stated. “Governments don’t want to tell people that they’ll have to pay for these changes.”

The true cost will depend on which strategies are adopted to reduce emissions.

Innovations in Aircraft Technology

The UK’s Jet Zero strategy focuses heavily on the rapid development of new technologies, operational improvements, and the use of alternative fuels to achieve carbon-neutral flying.

The aviation industry has been steadily improving fuel efficiency for decades. For example, the introduction of high-bypass turbofan engines in the 1969 Boeing 747 was a significant step forward. More recent innovations, such as “sharklets” (curved wing tips), help reduce drag and can save up to 4% of fuel per flight.

One of the most promising technologies is Rolls-Royce’s UltraFan engine, which is designed to reduce fuel consumption by 10%.

“Because of the gearbox, the turbine can run more efficiently at a faster speed, while the fan can run slower and be much larger,” explained Simon Burr, a Rolls-Royce director.

However, while the UltraFan was first tested in 2023, it’s unlikely to be used on commercial planes until the 2030s. Even then, a 10% reduction is impressive but not enough to radically change the emissions profile of the sector.

Since aviation’s CO2 emissions come largely from jet engines burning fossil fuels, there have been efforts to develop Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF), which is derived from renewable biomass and waste materials.

The first SAF flight took place in 2008, using a blend of Brazilian babassu nuts and coconuts. The UK government aims for 22% of jet fuel used in UK aviation to come from sustainable sources by 2040. However, most SAF is currently made from used cooking oil, much of which is imported from Asia, adding emissions from shipping.

“It’s hard to believe there’s such a thing as truly sustainable aviation fuel,” said Helm. “While biofuels and recycled materials can make aviation less polluting, the scale of production required is enormous.”

Optimizing Flight Routes

Another strategy to reduce emissions involves optimizing flight paths. Currently, many flights follow predetermined routes based on outdated beacons, which means they don’t always take the most direct route. “Airspace modernization” would allow planes to fly more directly, saving both fuel and emissions.

With satellite technology, aircraft flying across the Atlantic no longer need to stay 40 miles apart, as was once required. In theory, they could fly as close as 14 miles apart, allowing for more direct flight paths.

The Jet Zero Strategy estimates that these changes, along with other fuel efficiency improvements, could reduce emissions by 15% by 2050. However, Chris Norsworthy of National Air Traffic Services (NATS) warns that these adjustments are complex and will take years to implement.

“It’s a very complicated thing to do,” he said.

The Race for Electric and Hydrogen Aircraft

Another potential breakthrough lies in electric planes. Stephen Fitzpatrick, an inventor near Bristol, has spent seven years developing the VX4, a carbon-fiber aircraft with eight propellers that runs on lithium-ion batteries.

The catch? The batteries alone weigh 800 kg, limiting the plane’s range to around 100 miles. Fitzpatrick is hopeful that future battery advancements and hybrid powertrains, using hydrogen fuel cells alongside batteries, will eventually extend the aircraft’s range.

Still, replacing long-haul flights with electric planes is unlikely anytime soon. Fitzpatrick acknowledges that “there is no battery chemistry that can currently provide the energy needed to carry hundreds of passengers across the Atlantic.”

Hydrogen-powered aircraft, however, may be a more viable option. ZeroAvia, a British-American aircraft company, plans to have an 80-seat hydrogen-powered plane in the air within 2-3 years, and Airbus is also developing hydrogen-powered planes. These, however, are propeller planes with limited speed and range.

The Cost of Going Green

Despite these technological advancements, reducing aviation emissions will only account for about a third of the necessary cuts, according to the UK government’s estimates. To meet the Jet Zero goal, airlines will need to pay for CO2 emissions and invest in carbon offset programs.

Currently, UK airlines already pay duties for each flight, which are passed on to passengers. These fees range from £7 for domestic flights to £92 for long-haul flights. However, carbon offsetting programs, which aim to neutralize the carbon impact, will likely add another layer of cost to tickets.

Cait Hewitt, policy director at the Aviation Environment Federation, warns that many offsetting schemes may be ineffective, creating a false impression that emissions are being canceled out.

Duncan McCourt, CEO of Sustainable Aviation, believes that the cost of carbon-neutral aviation can be managed without significantly increasing ticket prices. “We think we can achieve this while still allowing people to enjoy the benefits of flying,” he said.

However, the Jet Zero plan does not specify how much these costs will affect passengers directly, only mentioning “demand management.”

Sir Dieter Helm, meanwhile, is skeptical that the UK will meet its 2050 target on time and predicts that achieving Jet Zero will result in higher costs for consumers.

With the number of flights expected to rise in the coming years, the challenge for governments to make air travel sustainable is only going to grow.