Rudolph Angler India’s plan to double steel production by 2030 poses a serious threat to its climate targets and global steel decarbonisation efforts, according to a new report released Tuesday by Global Energy Monitor (GEM). Steel production accounts for nearly 9% of global greenhouse gas emissions. As the world pushes for cleaner steelmaking, India remains heavily reliant on coal-based technologies, raising concerns about future emissions.
GEM tracks energy projects worldwide and highlights that India, the world’s second-largest steel producer, is crucial to global climate progress. “India now sets the tone for steel decarbonisation,” said Astrid Grigsby-Schulte, manager of GEM’s Global Iron and Steel Tracker. “If India doesn’t scale up green steel plans, the entire sector could miss key targets,” she warned.
India’s Coal Dependence Drives Rising Emissions
India’s steel industry currently emits around 12% of the country’s greenhouse gases. Under existing plans, these emissions could double in five years as steel output rises. India aims to boost annual steel production from 200 million tonnes to more than 330 million tonnes by 2030.
While India is expanding clean energy—surpassing 100 gigawatts of solar capacity and targeting 500 gigawatts of clean power by 2030—the steel sector remains heavily coal-dependent. Coal is widely used because it is cheap and locally available. Indian blast furnaces are relatively new and expected to operate for 20 to 25 more years. Unlike China, India has limited access to natural gas and steel scrap, hindering a transition to cleaner methods.
GEM analyst Henna Khadeeja said, “No other major steel producer matches India’s coal dependency.” India emits 2.6 tonnes of CO₂ per tonne of steel, 25% above the global average. In contrast, China uses more recycled steel and retires old plants to cut emissions.
Global Steel Sector Faces Climate Target Challenges
The International Energy Agency aims for 37% of global steel production to use electric arc furnace technology by 2030, a cleaner method that reduces carbon emissions. GEM predicts only 36% adoption, mainly due to India’s ongoing coal-heavy projects. This shortfall jeopardizes meeting global steel climate goals.
India currently holds 40% of the world’s steel capacity under development, with more than half still relying on coal. However, most new steel projects remain unbuilt. “Only 8% of proposed capacity has broken ground,” Khadeeja noted, emphasizing an opportunity to shift toward greener technologies before construction starts.
Economic Risks and the Path Forward
Carbon-intensive steel production could also threaten India’s trade prospects. The European Union plans to introduce carbon border taxes next year, penalizing imports with high carbon footprints. Though India exports a small share of its steel, it risks losing future market access without cleaner production.
Easwaran Narassimhan from Sustainable Futures Collaborative urged India to invest in green steel upgrades despite short-term costs. “That choice may protect long-term global competitiveness,” he said.
India aims for net-zero carbon emissions by 2070, but achieving this requires urgent reforms in its steel sector. Cleaner steel production can help balance economic growth with climate commitments.