Fitch Ratings has cut France’s sovereign credit score from “AA-” to “A+”, citing deepening political turmoil and a lack of credible progress on controlling the country’s rising debt.
The downgrade follows the collapse of François Bayrou’s government after his unpopular budget plan was rejected in a confidence vote. Bayrou had proposed sweeping spending cuts, including the controversial removal of two bank holidays, in an effort to reduce France’s deficit.
According to Fitch, France’s debt is expected to climb from 113.2% of GDP in 2024 to 121% in 2027, with little chance of stabilisation before the end of the decade. The agency also warned that the political paralysis is unlikely to ease before the 2027 presidential election, leaving fiscal consolidation off the table for years.
Economy Minister Eric Lombard acknowledged the downgrade but stressed the “solidity” of France’s economy, pointing to low inflation, resilient household savings, and stable corporate finances. Economists, however, caution that France’s 2024 deficit of 5.8%—one of the highest in the EU—remains unsustainable without structural reforms.
France is now the third most indebted country in the eurozone, behind Greece and Italy. Still, INSEE forecasts modest growth of 0.8% in 2025, with domestic demand expected to offset some of the impact from U.S. tariffs on EU goods.
Germany and the Netherlands continue to hold the strongest ratings in the bloc, while southern European economies—especially Italy—remain lower rated but with relatively more positive outlooks. Rival ratings agency S&P Global is set to deliver its own update on France in November.
