Richard Parks A newly detected asteroid, 2024 YR4, has raised concerns after astronomers identified a small possibility of it colliding with Earth on December 22, 2032. While the probability of impact stands at just over 1%, scientists emphasize that the likelihood of a miss remains 99%.
“We are not worried at all, but it is something that deserves attention,” said Paul Chodas, director of NASA’s Centre for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS).
Asteroid 2024 YR4: Key Details and Trajectory
Discovered last month by a telescope in Chile, 2024 YR4 is estimated to measure between 130 and 330 feet (40 to 100 meters) in diameter. The asteroid made its closest approach to Earth on December 25, passing at a distance of 800,000 kilometers, approximately twice the distance of the moon. It was first identified two days later.
The asteroid is currently moving away from Earth, making observations more challenging. It is expected to fade from view in the coming months and will not be visible again until 2028, when scientists will have another opportunity to refine their calculations.
Tracking the Risk: Could the Probability of Impact Change?
Astronomers are reviewing archived sky surveys from 2016, as predictions suggest 2024 YR4 may have passed near Earth at that time as well. If older observations confirm its position, scientists could better predict its trajectory and possibly rule out any risk of impact.
“If we don’t find that detection, the impact probability will just move slowly as we add more observations,” explained Chodas.
ESA (European Space Agency) reports that asteroids of this size typically strike Earth only once every few thousand years, but a collision could cause considerable local damage. Given its potential risk, 2024 YR4 has now been placed at the top of ESA’s asteroid risk list.
No Immediate Threat, But Ongoing Monitoring Continues
Despite the initial uncertainty, NASA reassures the public that no other large asteroids currently pose an impact risk greater than 1%.
While 2024 YR4 remains under observation, scientists expect that further data collection will likely eliminate the impact risk entirely well before 2032.