Rudolph Angler America may be caught in what German political scientist Elisabeth Noelle-Neumann described as a “spiral of silence,” where people hesitate to voice opinions on controversial issues if they sense most others disagree. Over time, this suppression makes some viewpoints seem more dominant, stifling dialogue and compromise.
In reality, people may share more common ground than is openly acknowledged. To explore hidden opinions, researchers at Populace used a list-experiment method, dividing respondents into two groups. One group received lists of statements, each containing three neutral statements, while the other received lists with a fourth, sensitive statement the researchers were testing. Respondents indicated the number of statements they agreed with rather than identifying which ones, a technique intended to elicit honest responses. By comparing responses, researchers estimated how many people privately agreed with each sensitive statement. They also conducted a direct survey, asking a different group of respondents for public agreement or disagreement with the same statements.
For instance, on abortion, Populace found that religious groups like Protestant, Catholic, Jewish, and Muslim respondents were more likely to privately support the statement “abortion should be legal in most cases” than they would admit publicly. While only 39% of Protestants openly agreed with the statement, Populace estimated that 54% privately supported it. Among Muslims, public agreement was 43%, while 66% privately agreed. Overall, 55% of the public survey supported legal abortion in most cases, compared to 63% in the private survey.
Similarly, Democrats and Republicans were closer in private views on defunding the police. Publicly, 27% of Democrats supported defunding, but only 3% privately agreed, while just 1% of Republicans privately supported it, down from 6% publicly.
Republicans and wealthier respondents were more likely to feel privately that society is unfair, despite publicly endorsing the opposite. While half of Republicans said publicly that “we live in a mostly fair society,” only 11% privately believed it. Populace’s findings indicate that both conservatives and liberals might secretly agree on some core issues, including widespread distrust in government. For example, 36% of Democrats publicly said they trusted the government to be truthful, yet only 5% were estimated to privately agree. Among Republicans, public trust was 14%, while private trust dropped to just 2%.
Todd Rose of Populace highlights that declining trust in government, media, and even in each other is worrying because social trust is crucial for a democracy’s health and cohesion. However, not everyone sees a total collapse in trust. James Gibson, a government professor at Washington University in St. Louis, believes that survey questions about generalized trust, like “most people can be trusted,” may lack the specificity needed for accurate insights.
Populace’s survey revealed that certain groups, such as Gen Z, independents, and college graduates, showed significant differences between their public and private opinions. Gibson suggested that these groups may feel heightened social pressure to conform to perceived norms. For Gen Z, 72% reported self-silencing in the past year, possibly due to social media’s power to amplify dominant viewpoints. In contrast, lower-income individuals and those with less formal education, who may already face exclusion, appear to experience less pressure to self-silence. The Silent Generation, in fact, was least likely to self-censor.
Many Americans self-censor in both public forums and private conversations. Alessia Gonzalez, a bartender in a conservative neighborhood, refrains from sharing her beliefs at work, especially her views on Israel and Palestine, fearing backlash or job consequences. Similarly, Fernando, a pro-Israel advertising professional, holds back his opinions around coworkers with differing views to avoid conflict.
A new study from Populace and YouGov found that 58% of Americans believe most people don’t feel free to express their honest opinions, while 61% admitted to holding back opinions in the past year to avoid offending others. “Social norms have made it costly to express views that one considers controversial, and therefore people withhold those views,” Gibson says. Critics argue that too much self-censorship limits the robust debate essential for democracy. “If people are self-censoring, deliberation is compromised, and that’s damaging to democracy,” Gibson adds.
In the current election season, with polls showing a tight race between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump, America’s divisions are on display. Experts say that high polarization reinforces self-censorship as people fear the costs of dissent. “Self-silencing can lead to a public consensus that looks very different from private views,” Rose said.
Revealing these hidden commonalities could be key to a less polarized society. “As we find the courage to be respectfully honest with each other,” Rose says, “we’ll uncover a shared ground to tackle the real problems facing our country.” This reckoning, however, may have to wait until after the election.